CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2014-01-04T21:25:00-CME-001)

(Arrival Prediction by NOAA/SWPC submitted to this system by M. Leila Mays)
(Submitted CME shock arrival time taken from simulation posted here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wsa-enlil/)
(Submitted Kp estimate is from the Forecast Discussion and 3-Day Forecast below)
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 07 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest
solar event of the period was a C7/1f flare from Region 1944 (S09E18,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) at 06/0019 UTC. Region 1944 is the largest and
most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It was also
responsible for additional low level C-class flaring during the period.
Region 1946 (N09E14, Dac/beta-gamma) was not responsible for any
significant flaring but showed signs of growth in its intermediate spots
and consolidation in its follower spot group. The additional seven
numbered sunspot regions were stable or in a state of slight decay.
Further analysis on the 04 Jan coronal mass ejection (CME) forecasts the
majority of the plasma ejecta traveling south of the Sun-Earth line.
Glancing blow effects from this CME are expected midday on 07 Jan. After
further analysis, the CME associated with old Region 1936 (S15, L=225)
which first appeared in LASCO/C3 imagery at 06/0954 UTC and was reported
in the previous discussion is not anticipated to have an Earth-directed
component. There were no additional CMEs observed in satellite imagery
during the period.
--
Original predicted arrival time 2014-01-07T05:00Z (submitted 2014-01-06T01:26Z)
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 1944 (S08E32,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a few M-class (R1-minor) events during
the period. The largest of these events was a long duration, M4 x-ray
event observed at 04/1946 UTC. Associated with this event were Type IV
and 10cm (550 sfu) radio emissions. As observed on GONG, GOES-15 SXI and
SDO imagery, the bulk of the bright flare material originated from the
extreme western edge of the large leader spot and extended in a westward
direction out ahead of Region 1944. At 04/2148 UTC, SOHO/LASCO C2
imagery showed an asymmetric, full halo CME. Analysis suggested the CME
may have an Earth-directed component and was moving around 800-1000
km/s. Region 1944 developed a weak delta magnetic configuration and
showed intermediate spot consolidation and trailer spot penumbral
growth.
Region 1936 (S15, L=232) produced a long duration M1 x-ray event
observed off the west limb at 04/2252 UTC. Associated with this event
was a Type IV radio sweep. Region 1937 (S13W65, Dac/beta-gamma-delta)
continued to grow, particularly in the intermediate-trailer portions of
the region. New Region 1946 (N09E28, Dai/beta) emerged on the disk as a
simple bi-polar group and quickly grew. The remaining regions were quiet
and stable.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels (R1-Minor to
R2-Moderate) for the next three days (05 - 07 Jan) with a chance for
X-class (R3-Strong) flares from active Region 1944.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
moderate levels reaching a peak of 879 pfu at 04/1500 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced following the M-flare activity mentioned above.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at moderate to high levels during the period (05 - 07 Jan) in
response to a geoeffective coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to
remain at background levels during 05 - 07 Jan with a chance for an S1
(Minor) event due to the flare potential of Region 1944.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed at the ACE spacecraft slowly decline through the period
to end near 450 km/s, signalling the end of the high speed stream. ACE
remained in a positive solar sector under benign magnetic conditions. 
Bt remained at or below 5 nT and Bz never dropped below -5 nT.
.Forecast...
Nominal wind speeds are expected through the first two days of the
forecast period (05 - 06 Jan). The solar wind environment may reflect
the arrival of a shock and CME on day 3 (07 Jan).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the
first two days of the forecast period (05 - 06 Jan). A manual prognosis
suggests the CME above will arrive late on day 3 (07 January) and bring
a chance for a G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm. Further refinement of the
timing and magnitude should be expected as additional imagery and
numerical model output are received.
--
Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2014 Jan 05 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 05-Jan 07 2014
 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
00-03UT 1 2 2 
03-06UT 1 1 1 
06-09UT 2 1 1 
09-12UT 1 1 1 
12-15UT 1 1 1 
15-18UT 1 1 5 (G1)
18-21UT 1 2 4 
21-00UT 2 2 3 
Rationale: There is a chance for a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm on late
on day three (07 Jan) with the arrival of a CME from 04 Jan.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds but enhanced.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014
 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
S1 or greater 30% 30% 30%
Rationale: There is a chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms through the forecast period, particularly from Region 1944.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Jan 04 2014 1946 UTC
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 05-Jan 07 2014
 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07
R1-R2 75% 75% 75%
R3 or greater 30% 30% 30%
Rationale: R1 (Minor) to R2 (moderate) radio blackouts are expected,
particularly from Region 1944. There is also a chance for an R3 or
greater radio blackout through the forecast period.
--
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2014 Jan 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
...
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the
first day of the forecast period (06 Jan). Preliminary modelling of the
CME mentioned above indicates an arrival time approximately mid to late
on day 2 (07 Jan) causing unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor)
conditions. CME effects are expected to persist into day 3 (08 Jan)
causing continued unsettled to active conditions.

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